Islamabad June 4 2022: Pakistan expected to receive monsoon early and above average rainfalls this year, as per report published by Pakistan Meteorological Department.
Currently, La-Niña condition is prevailing and is likely to continue with weak intensity during June–August 2022, while the IOD condition is expected to remain in negative state throughout the forecast period.
Overall, a tendency for above normal precipitation is predicted over most parts of the country during June–August 2022 in Pakistan.
Monsoon onset is expected during the last week of June whereas pre-monsoon rains may occur from third week of June. Pre-monsoon and early monsoon rainfall is expected to be above normal over the central (Punjab) and southern parts (Sindh) of the country whereas slightly above normal rainfall is expected over remaining parts of the country.
First phase (1 st July to mid-August) of Monsoon is expected to be wet as compared to the last phase (mid-Aug to onward). Day time temperature is likely to remain above normal all over the country during start of the forecast period but the expected rains towards the end of the season will normalize the high temperature.
Above normal temperatures in high altitudes are likely to increase rate of snowmelt in the Northern Areas subsequently increasing the chances of base flow in the Upper Indus basin.
Flash flooding in hill torrents of Punjab, AJK and KP, also urban flooding in major plain areas of Punjab, Sind and KP cannot be ruled out.