New York July 12 2022: There’s worse to come for copper after a sharp slump, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which slashed its forecasts for the metal and said risks to economic growth from the global energy crunch were skewed heavily upwards.
Goldman’s analysts have been among the more bullish voices on commodities — and particularly on copper — over the past two years. But the bank said the metal was now 40% below its expectations, and that recession risks in developed economies would fuel demand pessimism for the rest of 2022.
The global energy squeeze that’s threatening growth is “heavily skewed toward escalation into winter”, analysts including Nicholas Snowdon wrote in an emailed note. The dollar’s surge has also weighed significantly on copper, they wrote. The bank sees copper at $6,700 a ton in the coming three months, versus an earlier forecast of $8,650.
The metal often seen as a bellwether of the world economy has slumped nearly 30% from a record in March. While copper had been favored by analysts because of tight supplies and its use in fast-expanding green technologies, prices have plunged as Russia’s squeeze on energy supplies roil economies, especially in Europe.
Copper fell 0.2% Tuesday on the London Metal Exchange to $7,566 a ton by 11:55 a.m. in Shanghai. It reached its lowest since late-2020 last week.
“The downward spiral in copper price that has gathered momentum in recent sessions reflects increasingly pessimistic growth expectations,” Goldman said. “This latest leg lower has been tied to increasing headwinds to European growth path, in particular from the impact of surging regional natural gas prices on activity.”
Goldman said copper was still on track to reach $15,000 in 2025, Goldman said, citing a “clear structural bull story” as mine supply peaks. It sees copper at $7,600 in 6 months and at $9,000 in 12 months, versus previous forecasts of $10,500 and $12,000.
