Karachi December 15 2021: As data released by State Bank of Pakistan, Rupee lost 10 paisa in interbank trading to close at 177.98 against 177.88 closing of yesterday despite State Bank of Pakistan statement of fully financed Current Account deficit for the fiscal year 2022.
Yesterday, Monetary Policy Committee emphasized that the monetary policy response to arrest the deterioration in the current account deficit has been timely. Together with the natural moderating influence of the flexible and market-determined exchange rate, the MPC felt that this response would help achieve the goal of a sustainable current account deficit this fiscal year. Moreover, the MPC noted that the current account deficit is expected to be fully financed from external inflows. As a result, foreign exchange reserves should remain at adequate levels through the rest of the fiscal year and resume their growth trajectory as global commodity prices ease and import demand moderates.
Despite strong exports and remittances, the current account deficit has increased sharply this year due to a rise in imports, and recent outturns have been higher than earlier expected. Based on PBS data, imports rose to $32.9 billion during July-November FY22, compared to $19.5 billion during the same period last year. Around 70 percent of this increase in imports stems from the sharp rise in global commodity prices, while the rest is attributable to stronger domestic demand. Due to the higher recent outturns, the current account deficit is projected at around 4 percent of GDP, somewhat higher than earlier projected. While in the near term monthly current account and trade deficit figures are likely to remain high, they are expected to gradually moderate in the second half of FY22 as global prices normalize with the easing of supply disruptions and tightening of monetary policy by major central banks. In addition, recent policy actions to moderate domestic demand―including policy rate hikes and curbs on consumer finance―and proposed fiscal measures, should help moderate growth in import volumes through the rest of the year.
