Karachi May 4 2025: Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is scheduled to convene on Monday, May 5, 2025, to decide the country’s key policy rate. The central bank will issue its Monetary Policy Statement through a press release later the same day.
Ahead of the highly anticipated decision, a recent survey conducted by the CFA Society Pakistan reveals a divided sentiment among market participants regarding the direction of the policy rate.
According to the Monetary Policy Survey – May 2025, a majority (51 percent) of respondents expect the MPC to maintain the current policy rate, reflecting a cautious outlook amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, 29 percent of the participants foresee a rate cut of 100 basis points, and 20 percent expect a modest reduction of 50 basis points.
Looking ahead to the end of the calendar year, the consensus is more decisive. Three-quarters (75 percent) of the respondents anticipate the policy rate to settle between 10 percent and 11 percent by December 2025, suggesting expectations of a gradual easing cycle. Additionally, 14 percent forecast the rate to fall below 10 percent, while only 7 percent believe it will be maintained at 12 percent. A small fraction (5 percent) expect it to hover between 11.5 percent and 12 percent.
The MPC’s upcoming decision will be closely watched by investors, businesses, and policymakers alike, as it will provide critical signals on the central bank’s inflation outlook, economic recovery pace, and external account stability.
