Paris November 14 2023: Refinery margins collapsed in October from the near-record levels achieved during 3Q23, reported by IEA.
Weaker gasoline cracks drove much of the decline, but still-elevated middle distillate cracks ensured margins remain above the five-year average. Global crude runs are expected to rise by 1.9 mb/d in 2023 and 1 mb/d in 2024, to average 82.6 mb/d and 83.6 mb/d, respectively.
Chinese oil demand rose to another record high of 17.1 mb/d in September, underpinning global growth. China is set to account for 1.8 mb/d of the total 2.4 mb/d increase that lifts demand to 102 mb/d in 2023. Overall growth is expected to slow to 930 kb/d in 2024. In the OECD, economic headwinds are increasingly apparent, with this year’s slim demand gains giving way to a contraction in 2024.
World oil output increased by 320 kb/d in October to 102 mb/d. Growth in the United States and Brazil is outperforming forecasts, helping to propel global supply higher by 1.7 mb/d to a record 101.8 mb/d in 2023. Non-OPEC+ will again drive overall growth in 2024, projected at 1.6 mb/d. There has been no material impact on oil supply flows from the war between Israel and Hamas that started in early October.