Karachi March 6 2025: A recent monetary policy survey conducted by CFA Society Pakistan reveals that a majority of respondents anticipate a reduction in the policy rate in the upcoming March 2025 Monetary Policy Statement.
According to the survey results, 43% expect a 100 basis points (bps) cut, while 27% foresee a 50 bps reduction. Additionally, 7% predict a more significant rate cut exceeding 100 bps. Meanwhile, 23% of respondents believe the policy rate will remain unchanged.
Looking ahead, expectations for the policy rate at the end of the fiscal year 2025 (June 2025) suggest a downward trend. A majority (59%) predict that the rate will fall between 10-11%, while 23% expect it to be between 11-12%. Only 9% believe the rate will remain at 12%, and another 9% anticipate it dropping below 10%.
For the calendar year 2025, the sentiment for further easing remains strong. By December 2025, 41% expect the policy rate to settle between 10-11%, while 34% foresee a decline below 10%. A smaller segment (16%) expects the rate to be in the 11-12% range, whereas 9% believe it will stay at 12%.
These results highlight a broad consensus among market participants that monetary easing will continue in 2025, driven by expectations of improved economic conditions and inflationary control.
