Automobile sales are expected to decline by 8 percent MoM in May 2021, compared to average MoM decline of 3 percent in May over April in the preceding 5 years (2014-2019; excluding 2020 due to Pandemic anomaly), as per research report of JS Global. They believe that larger-than-average expected decline in volumes is due to (1) extended Eid holidays, and (2) impact of new entrants.
The MoM decline is expected to be lower for Pak Suzuki (PSMC, -3 percent) with car sales of 8,307 units compared to 8,606 units during April, given relatively lower competition in its market segments,. Whereas, Indus Motors and Honda Atlas Car could experience a more drastic reduction in volumes. Indus Motors car sales are expected to remain at 4,676 units, down 13 percent MoM, and Honda Atlas Cars volumes are estimated at 2,001 units during the month of May 2021.
Auto volumes for the big-3 Automobile companies Indus Motors, Pak Suzuki Motors and Honda are expected to grow 235 percent YoY in May 2021 to 14,984 units, taking cumulative volumes for 11MFY21 to 161,613 units, reflecting an increase of 58 percent YoY.
JS Global believe that auto sector is continuing to witness (1) new competition, (2) higher shipping & freight, (3) commodity prices, and (4) production issues (chip shortage). This is in addition to any potential negative surprises that might arise in the upcoming budget. Such as increasing maximum age of used CBU imports from 3 to 5 years is being discussed in media.