London June 19 2025: At its meeting, the Bank of England MPC voted by a majority of 6–3 to maintain Bank Rate at 4.25%.
Three members preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 4%.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. The MPC adopts a medium-term and forward-looking approach to determine the monetary stance required to achieve the inflation target sustainably.
There has been substantial disinflation over the past two years, as previous external shocks have receded, and as the restrictive stance of monetary policy has curbed second-round effects and stabilised longer-term inflation expectations. This has allowed the MPC to withdraw gradually some degree of policy restraint, while maintaining Bank Rate in restrictive territory so as to continue to squeeze out existing or emerging persistent inflationary pressures.
Underlying UK GDP growth appears to have remained weak, and the labour market has continued to loosen, leading to clearer signs that a margin of slack has opened up over time. Measures of pay growth have continued to moderate and, as in May, the Committee expects a significant slowing over the rest of the year. The Committee remains vigilant about the extent to which easing pay pressures will feed through to consumer price inflation.
Twelve-month CPI inflation increased to 3.4% in May from 2.6% in March, in line with expectations in the May Monetary Policy Report. The rise was largely due to a range of regulated prices and previous increases in energy prices. Consumer price inflation is expected to remain broadly at current rates throughout the remainder of the year before falling back towards target next year.
Furthermore, global uncertainty remains elevated. Energy prices have risen owing to an escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. The Committee will remain sensitive to heightened unpredictability in the economic and geopolitical environment, and will continue to update its assessment of risks to the economy.
There remain two-sided risks to inflation. Given the outlook, and continued disinflation, a gradual and careful approach to the further withdrawal of monetary policy restraint remains appropriate. Monetary policy is not on a pre-set path. At this meeting, the Committee voted to maintain Bank Rate at 4.25%.
The Committee will continue to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and what the evidence may reveal about the balance between aggregate supply and demand in the economy. Monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further. The Committee will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
